Markets are ~60% of success

This is obviously just an estimate but it seems that choosing good markets accounts for somewhere around 60% of success (or failure) in a market.

The other 40% could be broken down into ~30% team and 10% black swan (positive or negative) events.

One way to think about whether or not a company will make it is if the aggregate 'score' is over 50. A 30/30 team with a 20/60 market will break the threshold and succeed. A 10/30 team in a 50/60 market will also succeed. A 30/30 team in a 10/60 market will not. And so on.

Choose markets wisely, when investing and operating! For local businesses, this means location dynamics, 'buyer persona' and 'buying category'. For online businesses, there is no local component, so it's about the 'buyer persona' and 'buying category'.